Side-by-side comparison
Choose which states to compare. On a phone, scroll the table sideways. Where a detail rests on a secondary source rather than the statute, order, or tariff itself, the table says "as reported."
Showing:
| Pennsylvania | Virginia | Ohio | Maryland | New Jersey | Illinois | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who reviews the forecast | ||||||
| Commission review of load forecasts | Yes, by statute. Act 45 of 2025 requires the PUC to investigate and validate the load forecasts utilities submit to PJM. In December 2025 the PUC required each utility to provide its PJM large load adjustment and copies of all executed contracts with customers over 50 MW (or 100 MW combined). The PUC's first annual report (June 2026) found no double counting of firm load within Pennsylvania. Act 21 of 2026 extends review of the underlying agreements to the PUC's enforcement bureau and the statutory advocates (as reported by Steptoe & Johnson). | Partial. Dominion shared its 2027 forecast with the SCC on Aug. 14, 2026, and the SCC acknowledged it on Aug. 28; that is not an approval. HB 892 (2026) requires the SCC to open a proceeding on utility load-forecasting practices by March 1, 2027 (as reported). | None found. AEP told PJM that four of the five state regulators it serves reviewed or endorsed its 2027 method; it did not name them. | None found. | None found. The law has utilities let customers review and correct load data before it goes to PJM. | None found. The state's first integrated resource plan under the CRGA Act (Public Act 104-0458) is due Nov. 15, 2026. |
| Who it applies to | ||||||
| Size threshold | PUC model tariff: over 50 MW individually or 100 MW in aggregate. PPL's approved tariff: 50 MW at one facility, or 75 MW combined across nearby facilities. | GS-5 rate class: 25 MW or more on one site, with a load factor of at least 75%. | AEP Ohio data center tariff: 25 MW. | 25 MW or more, with a load factor above 60% (Utility RELIEF Act, Chapter 353 of 2026). | Set by the BPU, no higher than 50 MW, counting commonly owned or neighboring sites together. | ComEd's deposit schedule starts at 50 MW. |
| What customers commit to | ||||||
| Contract term and minimum bill | Model tariff (guidance): at least 5 years after the load ramp, and 48 months' notice to exit or reduce load, aligned with the PJM forecast; 80% minimum bill (as reported by K&L Gates). PPL: at least 10 years with a ramp of up to 5 years; minimum bill of 80% in years 1 to 5 and 50% in years 6 to 10; exit fee equal to the remaining minimum. | 14-year contract with a ramp of up to 4 years. Minimum charges of 85% of contracted transmission and distribution demand and 60% of contracted generation demand. Exit fee covering the remaining minimum charges. | Up to 12 years: a ramp of up to 4 years plus 8 years. Minimum bill of up to 85% of contract capacity, on a sliding scale by size. Exit fee equal to 36 months of minimum charges. | The statute requires rate schedules to address minimum billing demand but sets no percentage. Tariff terms pending before the PSC. | Guarantee payment for at least 85% of requested supply for 10 years, unless the BPU's standards provide otherwise. No exit fee or ramp provision. | Minimum payment and security obligations approved by the ICC; terms not public. |
| Collateral and deposits | Model tariff: collateral reduced as the load ramps up. PPL: security equal to the cost of upgrades built to serve the customer. | $1.5 million per MW, reducible by up to 70% for strong credit and released over the contract term. | 50% of total minimum charges for the full term, unless the customer meets credit standards; surety bonds not accepted. | Pending. The governor's Sept. 23, 2026 executive order says developers should accept collateral, minimum bills, and exit fees. | Deposits or other financial security; highly rated customers may substitute financial commitments. | $1 million deposit for 50 to 200 MW, plus $500,000 for each additional 100 MW; letter of credit if the deposit exceeds $2 million (as reported by Capitol News Illinois). ComEd reports eight transmission security agreements backed by more than $2 billion. |
| Studies and queue rules | Model tariff: studies completed within 6 months; utilities post large-load requests and study status publicly without naming the customer. | No standard fee found. In its PJM submission, Dominion counts signed service agreements and construction authorizations as firm, and includes 41% of load still at the engineering-authorization stage. | Paid load study before signing: $10,000 to $100,000 depending on size; customers sign within 60 days of the study. | Registration fee of at least $1,000 per MW of peak load, directed to low-income programs. | Customers pay interconnection and study costs. Utilities give interconnection priority to customers that commit to clean supply or demand reduction. | Deposits are refundable, less study and upgrade costs, if a project cancels (as reported). |
| Double counting and transparency | ||||||
| Duplicate-request disclosure | No requirement found. The PUC's Act 45 review found no double counting of firm load within the state. | No requirement found. | No requirement found. | Yes, by statute. A new PSC registry requires disclosure of substantially similar requests at a Maryland utility or a utility in another PJM state. Not yet operating. | Yes, by statute. Customers must disclose substantially similar pending requests at any other utility, in New Jersey or elsewhere. Not yet in effect. | No requirement found. |
| Public pipeline reporting | Public request postings under the model tariff, as each utility adopts it, and the PUC's annual Act 45 report. Data centers of 10 MW or more report energy and water use to DEP each year starting July 1, 2027 (Act 21). | Yes, by statute. The SCC's first annual report (Oct. 1, 2026) lists 21,791 MW of contracted data center demand across five utilities, including 11,997 MW for Dominion. | No standing requirement. AEP told PUCO in February 2026 that about 13,000 MW of paid study requests had produced 5,642 MW of signed agreements (as reported by New Project Media). | The governor's executive order creates a public dashboard of projects of 25 MW or more, updated at least monthly. | No public queue required. PSE&G reported 9.4 GW of requests in 2025 and said it expects 10% to 20% to come online. | None required. The ICC cited more than 75 projects totaling over 28,000 MW in ComEd's territory. |
| Status and sources | ||||||
| Status, October 2026 | Model tariff adopted as guidance (voted April 30, 2026). PPL is the only utility with an approved large-load tariff (June 4, 2026). | GS-5 approved Nov. 25, 2025; takes effect Jan. 1, 2027. | In effect since July 23, 2025. The Ohio Manufacturers' Association appealed to the Ohio Supreme Court on Nov. 3, 2025. | Utility rate schedules were due Sept. 1, 2026. The BGE, Pepco, and Delmarva tariff is pending before the PSC, with hearings Oct. 23 and Dec. 8-11, 2026. | S731/A796 signed July 7, 2026. BPU standards due within 12 months; utility tariffs due 180 days after that. | ICC order March 19, 2026. A follow-on investigation of further protections is expected to finish around November 2026 (as reported). |
| Sources | puc.pa.govpuc.pa.govpuc.pa.govpuc.pa.govsteptoe-johnson.comklgates.com | rga.lis.virginia.govscc.virginia.govnpr.brightspotcdn.compjm.comvirginiamercury.com | aepohio.comdam.assets.ohio.govpjm.comnewprojectmedia.comohiomfg.com | mgaleg.maryland.govmgaleg.maryland.govopc.maryland.govgovernor.maryland.govchestertownspy.org | pub.njleg.state.nj.usnjbia.orgdatacenterdynamics.com | capitolnewsillinois.comelpc.orgipa.illinois.govmorrisil.org |
| Last updated | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-09 |
How PJM decides what counts
State screening feeds a regional process. Utilities submit their expected large loads to PJM, and PJM decides how much to include in the forecast that sets capacity auction demand.
PJM's test
Under Manual 19, Revision 39 (effective June 30, 2026), load counts as firm for capacity auction years only with "an ESO or CC or long-term supply commitment (with new or existing resources) plus a financial commitment (such as credit/collateral support or infrastructure investment)." An ESO is a signed electric service obligation and a CC is a construction commitment. Requests a customer won't confirm as unique are treated as duplicates.
The state step
Utilities must record when they shared their submission with the state regulator and what feedback came back, with the regulator's verification that the feedback is described accurately. The review is voluntary for the regulator, and PJM makes the final determination. In practice, state tariff terms produce much of the evidence PJM now needs to count load as firm.
What's at stake
PJM's Independent Market Monitor attributes $6.3 billion of the $16.4 billion in 2028/2029 capacity charges (38.2%) to data center load, with 21,470 MW of data center load in the forecast behind that auction. FERC accepted PJM's reliability backstop procurement on Sept. 29, 2026, effective Feb. 28, 2027; PJM's proposed interim service and large load registry are pending at FERC.
What stands out
Tariff terms do most of the screening
Minimum bills, long contracts, collateral, and paid studies make a speculative request expensive to hold. Ohio shows the effect: after AEP Ohio's tariff took effect, about 13,000 MW of paid study requests produced 5,642 MW of signed agreements, as reported.
The terms are converging
Thresholds run from 25 to 50 MW, bracketing PJM's own 50 MW line. Where minimum bills are set, they cluster at 80 to 85 percent of contracted demand, in Pennsylvania (PPL), Virginia, Ohio, and New Jersey.
Pennsylvania has gone furthest on forecast review
Pennsylvania is the only one of the six states whose commission reviews utility forecasts to PJM under statute, with the underlying contracts in hand. Virginia's commission received and acknowledged Dominion's forecast. No equivalent step was found in Ohio, Maryland, New Jersey, or Illinois.
New Jersey and Maryland moved first on duplicate requests
New Jersey and Maryland require developers to disclose duplicate requests at other utilities, including in other states. Both requirements are still being implemented, and PJM's forecast process now asks a similar question.
States are on different timelines
Ohio's tariff has been in effect since July 2025, and Illinois' deposit schedule since March 2026. In Pennsylvania, PPL's tariff was approved in June 2026. Virginia's rate class starts in January 2027, Maryland's tariffs are before its commission now, and New Jersey's are due around 2028. PJM's firm standard applies to the 2027 forecast.
What to watch
- October 2026: FERC action on PJM's large load interim service and registry (ER26-3515); PJM asked for an Oct. 12 effective date.
- October 22, 2026: PJM Members Committee special meeting on the reliability backstop procurement.
- October 23 and December 8-11, 2026: Maryland PSC hearings on the BGE, Pepco, and Delmarva large-load tariff.
- October 29, 2026: PJM's revised backstop proposal due at FERC, including cost allocation and the role of state regulators.
- November 15, 2026: Illinois' first integrated resource plan under the CRGA Act.
- January 1, 2027: Virginia's GS-5 rate class takes effect.
- February 28, 2027: PJM's reliability backstop procurement takes effect, with cost allocation still before FERC.
- March 1, 2027: Deadline for Virginia's SCC proceeding on utility load forecasting, as reported.
- Mid-2027: Pennsylvania PUC's second annual Act 45 report; New Jersey BPU standards; first DEP data center reports in Pennsylvania (July 1).
The question I expect to shape the next cycle: how states coordinate with one another so the same data center isn't counted in more than one territory.